“A soft landing but risks remain” Critical takeaways from a global economist

29 May 2024

Former Chief Economist at Lloyds Bank, Professor Trevor Williams, delivered an insightful global economic update for delegates at IEC Edinburgh this April.

Discover critical takeaways from Professor Williams’ presentation below or, if you are an IEC Member, watch his full presentation now.

INFLATION IS SLOWING

Professor Williams explained how we have “dodged a bullet” by avoiding a recession following the instability of the last few years, illustrating that global inflation is now falling: “Prices are still going up, but they are going up more slowly – that’s the good news.”

“Global reduction in inflation is forecast to persist – and actually get lower. In other words, inflation will slow further than we’re currently seeing.”

INTEREST RATES WILL HALVE

He explained that with slowing inflation, there is now room for interest rates to fall: “No longer do we need interest rates at the emergency levels they got to in order to ensure that the pressure was against rising prices.”

“It is clear that recovery is underway” Professor Williams said, predicting that, on average, interest rates will “at least halve” over the next 9 months.

POST-PANDEMIC SPENDING POWER

Professor Williams explained how the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in more spending power for consumers today, which is yet to be put back into the economy: “People who could save in 2020 because of the lockdown, did so. These people have still not spent all the money they saved during this period.”

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES ARE FALLING

He also illustrated that, in many countries, unemployment rates are around the lowest they have been since 2001 – showing geographically widespread recovery in unemployment.

TRADE AGREEMENTS MATTER

Professor Williams reported that international trade plays a crucial role in global prosperity: “The greater the increase in the country’s share of exports and imports, the greater the increase in its GDP per capita. So, the more open markets are, the greater the possibility of prosperity.”

WHAT ELSE?

As part of his exclusive presentation, Professor Williams dissects the economic impact of geopolitical instability, growing populations, and rapid technological change – concluding with what this all means for the egg industry.