Koning, 2009 – Will the world have enough to eat?

The food price spike in the first half of 2008 has increased concerns about the global supply of food in the future. Technically it seems possible to feed the nine billion people who are expected two or three times over by mid-century. However, diminishing returns, rising input prices and handicaps of less-favored areas will make the world food economy run up against a ceiling long before the technical potential has been realized. On the basis of an analysis of the literature we argue that if the long-term price decline of food in the 20th century were to change, short time horizons of private and public actors pose special risk because these may prevent timely investment in increasing the world’s capacity for food production. Governments have a number of options to mitigate this risk by influencing the supply and demand for farm products, investing in research and infrastructure, and reducing the price instability in agricultural markets.